Abstract：According to strategists at Societe Generale SA, the rand will outperform emerging-market currencies in the upcoming year due to increased interest rates and China's infrastructure stimulus.
According to strategists at Societe Generale SA, the rand will outperform emerging-market currencies in the upcoming year due to increased interest rates and China's infrastructure stimulus.
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By year's end, they forecast a 3.5% gain, versus an average loss of 2.5% for other emerging-market currencies. According to a report published on Monday by strategists Phoenix Kalen and Marek Drimal, SocGen's outlook is only “somewhat optimistic” for the rand among 19 other peers.
The majority of EM currencies, they said, “would fare poorly in spot terms during the next year.”
In the last quarter of 2022, they predict that the rand would increase to 16.50 per dollar, and by the third quarter of the following year, to 15.80. On Monday, it was trading at about 17.06 per dollar.
This year, the stronger dollar and South Africa's economic difficulties have hurt the rand. The second-worst performing emerging-market currency over the previous month, it lost more than 5% of its value against the dollar.
