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Abstract：Gold prices remain steady as investors anticipate Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s upcoming speech and the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls data. Geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties continue to support safe-haven demand for gold, while higher U.S. yields exert downward pressure. Key economic events this week include JOLTs Job Openings, ADP Employment Change, and the Non-Farm Payrolls report.
Gold Analysis for the Week
Key Support Level:$2,317.80
Key Resistance Level:$2,338.25
Gold prices have shown slight declines and steadiness as investors remain cautious ahead of key economic data and Federal Reserve signals. The anticipation of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powells upcoming speech and the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data on July 5 are critical factors. These events will provide insights into future monetary policy and the overall economic outlook, influencing gold prices.
Gold prices are currently experiencing a period of caution and minimal movement. Investors are awaiting Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's upcoming speech for indications on future monetary policy, which could impact gold's attractiveness. Additionally, the market is focusing on U.S. jobs data to gauge the economic health and potential interest rate changes. While geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties continue to support safe-haven demand for gold, higher U.S. yields are exerting downward pressure. Overall, gold remains steady, with potential for significant movement depending on the forthcoming economic data and Fed signals.
Overall Sentiment:Bullish, but cautious, driven by anticipation of U.S. economic data and Federal Reserve signals.
Key Influences:
Federal Reserve Signals:Anticipation of Jerome Powell's speech and future monetary policy direction.
U.S. Jobs Data:Upcoming data will provide insights into the economic health and potential interest rate changes.
Safe-Haven Demand:Ongoing economic and geopolitical uncertainties continue to support gold.
Potential Movement:XAU/USD is likely to remain steady with potential upside movement, contingent on the U.S. jobs data and Federal Reserve signals.
ISM Services PMI (Jun)– July 1, 2024: Reflects the activity level of purchasing managers in the services sector.
Impact:Higher-than-expected PMI could strengthen USD as it indicates strong services activity. Lower-than-expected PMI could weaken USD due to concerns about services sector slowdown.
JOLTs Job Openings (May)– July 2, 2024: Measures job vacancies in the U.S.
Impact:Higher-than-expected job openings could strengthen USD by indicating a strong labor market. Lower-than-expected openings could weaken USD due to concerns about labor market strength.
ADP Employment Change (Jun)– July 3, 2024: Estimates the change in the number of employed people in the U.S., excluding the farming industry and government.
Impact:Higher-than-expected employment change could strengthen USD as it indicates job market strength. Lower-than-expected change could weaken USD due to labor market concerns.
Initial Jobless Claims– July 4, 2024: A weekly measure of unemployment claims, indicating labor market health.
Impact:Lower-than-expected claims could strengthen USD as it indicates a healthy labor market. Higher-than-expected claims could weaken USD due to rising unemployment concerns.
Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) (Jun)– July 5, 2024: Measures the change in the number of people employed during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.
Impact:Higher-than-expected NFP could strengthen USD as it signals a robust labor market. Lower-than-expected NFP could weaken USD due to concerns about economic growth and employment.
Unemployment Rate (Jun)– July 5, 2024: Measures the percentage of the total workforce that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month.
Impact:Lower-than-expected unemployment rate could strengthen USD as it indicates job market strength. Higher-than-expected rate could weaken USD due to concerns about rising unemployment.
Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (Jun)– July 5, 2024: Measures the change in the price businesses pay for labor, excluding the farming industry.
Impact:Higher-than-expected earnings could strengthen USD as it indicates wage growth and potential inflationary pressures. Lower-than-expected earnings could weaken USD due to concerns about weak wage growth.
Disclaimer:
The views in this article only represent the author's personal views, and do not constitute investment advice on this platform. This platform does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness and timeliness of the information in the article, and will not be liable for any loss caused by the use of or reliance on the information in the article.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthened against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, boosted by stronger-than-expected Q2 GDP growth in Japan, raising hopes for a BoJ rate hike. Despite this, the USD/JPY pair found support from higher US Treasury yields, though gains may be capped by expectations of a Fed rate cut in September.
The Japanese Yen rose 0.7% against the US Dollar after BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda hinted at potential rate hikes. This coincided with a recovery in Asian markets, aided by stronger Chinese stocks. With the July FOMC minutes already pointing to a September rate cut, the US Dollar might edge higher into the weekend.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) traded sideways against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, staying just below the seven-month high of 0.6798 reached on Monday. The downside for the AUD/USD pair is expected to be limited due to differing policy outlooks between the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the US Federal Reserve. The RBA Minutes indicated that a rate cut is unlikely soon, and Governor Michele Bullock affirmed the central bank's readiness to raise rates again if necessary to combat inflation.
Bitcoin traded above $60,000 on Friday, gaining over 4% this week but staying within a $57,000 to $62,000 range for the past 15 days. On-chain data reveals mixed signals, with institutions accumulating while some large holders are selling. Inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs and potential volatility from ongoing Mt.Gox fund movements could impact Bitcoin's price in the coming days.
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