Abstract：Bitcoin (BTC) plunged to $104,288 on Tuesday, extending its decline for a second consecutive session and breaking below the critical 200-day moving average. The selloff follows the worst October in a decade.
Bitcoin (BTC) plunged to $104,288 on Tuesday, extending its decline for a second consecutive session and breaking below the critical 200-day moving average. The selloff follows the worst October in a decade.
BTC Price: Below the 200-Day Moving Average
At $104,288, Bitcoin is now trading below the July and August support zone, signaling a significant deterioration in market sentiment. The price is not only lower than the October 17 crash, but also marks the weakest level since late June 2025.
The breach of the 200-day moving average — a key technical indicator watched by traders — suggests that bearish momentum could continue in the short term.
If Bitcoin fails to hold above the $100,000 psychological level, my analysis suggests that BTC could fall by as much as 30%, targeting the April lows near $74,000.
Why Is Bitcoin Going Down?
Federal Reserves Hawkish Shift Boosts the Dollar
One of the main drivers of the latest Bitcoin slump is the Federal Reserves shift in tone.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powells recent comments walked back expectations for a December rate cut, fueling a sharp rebound in the U.S. dollar and a simultaneous selloff in risk assets — including cryptocurrencies.
Higher-for-longer interest rates typically reduce investor appetite for speculative assets, as the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like Bitcoin rises.
The Worst October in 10 Years
Bitcoins troubles also stem from a historically bad October, breaking its long-standing seasonal trend.
BTC declined 3.69% last month, ending a seven-year “Uptober” streak during which Bitcoin typically posted gains.
Historically, October has delivered an average return of +19.92%, meaning the 2025 performance represents a staggering 23.61 percentage point underperformance relative to the long-term average.
This abrupt reversal of sentiment has dampened market confidence heading into November — traditionally one of Bitcoins stronger months.
Technical Breakdown Adds Selling Pressure
From a technical perspective, Bitcoins failure to defend key moving averages and previous support levels has triggered additional selling from both short-term traders and algorithmic systems.
The break below $105,000 and the 200-day moving average confirms a bearish technical setup, increasing the likelihood of further downside.
How Low Can Bitcoin Go?
If the $100,000 mark fails to attract sufficient buying pressure, the next critical support zones lie near $90,000, followed by $74,000, which corresponds to the April 2025 lows.
While long-term fundamentals，such as institutional adoption and network activity， remain constructive, the short-term outlook appears bearish.
Market volatility could remain elevated as traders await further guidance from the Federal Reserve and assess broader risk sentiment across global markets.
Is This the End of Bitcoins Decline?
Although Bitcoins correction has intensified, calling a definitive bottom remains challenging.
The combination of hawkish monetary policy, seasonal weakness, and technical breakdowns suggests that downside risks remain prominent.
However, long-term investors may view deeper pullbacks as accumulation opportunities, especially if macroeconomic conditions stabilize in early 2026.
Conclusion
Bitcoins fall below $105,000 marks a pivotal moment for the cryptocurrency market. The loss of the 200-day moving average and the failure of historical seasonal trends point to growing weakness in bullish momentum.
If the $100,000 level does not hold, a further correction toward $74,000 cannot be ruled out.
For now, Bitcoin remains caught between a resilient U.S. dollar and investor uncertainty over future Fed policy — a combination that continues to test the strength of the worlds largest cryptocurrency.
