Inside the Fed: Powell vows he won't be a 'shadow chair,' but a Warsh clash will be tough to avoid

When the Federal Open Market Committee gathers again in mid-June, it will mark the first time in nearly 80 years that a sitting and former chair conduct business together, a historic overlap that comes at a sensitive time for the central bank.

While the scenario could look something like the clash of the policy titans, the meeting with the incoming Chair Kevin Warsh and outgoing Jerome Powell likely will be less antagonistic — though still carrying high stakes for policy.

“Both Kevin and Jay will be able to interact, and I think the rest of the FOMC will be able to interact, although I grant that it may be challenging,” said Loretta Mester, who served as Cleveland Fed president until 2024 and knows what happens behind the doors of the committee meetings well. “They're all adults, and they all know what the mission of the Fed is, and I'm very confident that that's what will drive decision making, not any of these other things that people are worried about.”

Though Mester and other observers expect the collegial reputation of the Fed to prevail, the potential for drama is unmistakable. The unusual situation raises the possibility for competing policy positions, even if expressed subtly, as the markets await the Fed's next move.

After all, Warsh himself has called for “regime change” at the Fed, a direct shot at Powell's leadership. Moreover, President Donald Trump, who nominated both men, has been a severe Powell critic and has made no secret that he expects Warsh to lower rates.

Finally, Powell's apparent last turn as Fed chair underscored the potential fault lines, with a stunning four dissents from the post-meeting statement, mostly from members who objected to a subtle phrasing in the document that could be interpreted as a signal of policy easing ahead.