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اردو
Wee Khoon Chong at BNY reports strong Japanese macro data and resilient housing and commerce indicators, supporting the narrative that Japan has exited deflation and Bank of Japan (BoJ) normalization remains in play.
Rabobank‘s Elwin de Groot discusses Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech and its impact on US rates. He notes that Warsh signalled dissatisfaction with recent inflation and openness to further hikes, lifting near-term rate expectations while lowering longer-term premia.
Preliminary Germany Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data for August arrives at 2.9% Year-on-Year (YoY), lower than estimates of 3.1%, but higher than the previous reading of 2.8%. On a monthly basis, inflation data grew by 0.2%, slower than 0.3% estimates and the prior release of 0.9%.
Gold (XAU/USD) fluctuates between gains and losses on Monday after opening the week lower and briefly falling below $4,400, its lowest level since August 19, during Asian trading hours. The metal retains a near-term bearish bias as hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations keep buyers cautious.
NZD/USD trades around 0.5910 on Monday, virtually unchanged on the day at the time of writing. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) retains some support from improving Chinese activity data, but the move remains limited as investors prepare for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) decision on Wednesday.
BNY‘s Geoff Yu highlights that recent U.S. inflation data left the macro narrative intact, but Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech pushed markets to reprice September hike odds and lifted the Dollar. The focus now shifts to U.S.
The EURJPY cross is expected to face short-term consolidation with a slight bearish tilt early this week, capped by a formidable psychological resistance barrier at 186.00. The 186.00 Resistance Wall: Multi-day attempts to close definitively above 186.00 – 186.05 have been rejected. A clean daily close above this structural barrier is required to trigger a continuation toward June highs at 186.30 and Fibonacci targets at 187.35
Gold (XAU/USD) shows marginal gains on Monday, with price action hovering around $4.450 at the time of writing yet unable to take off from last weeks lows in the $4,400 area after depreciating more than 4% late last week.
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey has warned that frontier AI could materially increase cyber risks to the global financial system.
UOB Global Economics & Markets Research, led by economist Lee Sue Ann, now expects the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to raise the Official Cash Rate to 2.75% at the September meeting.
MUFG‘s Lloyd Chan notes that markets are reassessing Federal Reserve policy after Chair Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech, with higher US rate expectations lifting the Dollar and shifting focus to whether inflation remains sticky enough to warrant tightening.
BNYs Geoff Yu expects the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to deliver another 25bp hike to 2.75%, supported by elevated inflation and strong confidence data.
Commerzbanks Tatha Ghose highlights that recent Polish fiscal and monetary developments are negative for the Polish Zloty.
EUR/CAD appreciates after two days of losses, trading around 1.6120 during the European hours on Monday.
The EUR/USD pair trades in positive territory around 1.1590 during the early European trading hours on Monday. However, the potential upside for the major pair might be limited as traders ramped up bets on a rate hike after hawkish remarks by Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh.
The USD/JPY pair retreats from the 160.20 area, or a one-month high retested earlier this Monday, and, for now, seems to have snapped a five-day winning streak. Spot prices slide to the 159.80-159.75 region during the Asian session, though the downside potential seems limited.
Gold (XAU/USD) recovers slightly from sub-$4,400 levels – a one-and-a-half-week low – touched during the Asian session on Monday, though the upside potential seems limited. A softer US Dollar (USD) offers some support to the precious metal and helps trim a part of its intraday losses.
Gold (XAU/USD) attracts fresh sellers following an intraday uptick to the $4,472 region and drops to a one-and-a-half-week low during the Asian session on Monday.
Gold prices fell in India on Monday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
GBPCAD is testing an important daily/weekly structure around 1.8818 after the recent bullish recovery. The current area corresponds closely with the previous weekly high from 22 June, making it an important support/resistance flip zone. My bullish scenario is based on the market maintaining this structure rather than simply on short-term momentum. Key levels: • 1.8818 — current structural pivot / previous weekly high • 1.8954 — major weekly resistance and first important upside test • 1.9034 — …
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