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AUD/USD trades in a narrow range on Monday as markets weigh hawkish expectations from both the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and Federal Reserve (Fed). At the time of writing, the pair trades around 0.7167, with a modest pullback in the US Dollar (USD) helping cushion the downside.
Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report the Euro (EUR) is fractionally higher versus the US Dollar (USD), stabilizing after recent losses and attempting a modest recovery from upper-1.15 lows.
The US Dollar (USD) has faded part of Fridays strong advance despite the geopolitical landscape seeming to have deteriorated a tad in the last few days, while market participants appear to have already digested the hawkish remarks from Chair Warsh in Jackson Hole.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) advances during the North American session on Monday, up a modest 0.09%, as the US Dollar (USD) edges lower despite last Fridays hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh, ahead of a packed week of economic data from the United States (US).
EUR/USD holds modest gains on Monday during American trading hours as the US Dollar (USD) struggles to build on Fridays strength, which followed hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh at the Jackson Hole Symposium.
National Bank of Canada's (NBC) Taylor Schleich and Ethan Currie expect the Bank of Canada (BoC) to keep its overnight rate at 2.25% and maintain current balance sheet policy.
Wee Khoon Chong at BNY reports strong Japanese macro data and resilient housing and commerce indicators, supporting the narrative that Japan has exited deflation and Bank of Japan (BoJ) normalization remains in play.
Rabobank‘s Elwin de Groot discusses Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech and its impact on US rates. He notes that Warsh signalled dissatisfaction with recent inflation and openness to further hikes, lifting near-term rate expectations while lowering longer-term premia.
Preliminary Germany Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data for August arrives at 2.9% Year-on-Year (YoY), lower than estimates of 3.1%, but higher than the previous reading of 2.8%. On a monthly basis, inflation data grew by 0.2%, slower than 0.3% estimates and the prior release of 0.9%.
Gold (XAU/USD) fluctuates between gains and losses on Monday after opening the week lower and briefly falling below $4,400, its lowest level since August 19, during Asian trading hours. The metal retains a near-term bearish bias as hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations keep buyers cautious.
NZD/USD trades around 0.5910 on Monday, virtually unchanged on the day at the time of writing. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) retains some support from improving Chinese activity data, but the move remains limited as investors prepare for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) decision on Wednesday.
BNY‘s Geoff Yu highlights that recent U.S. inflation data left the macro narrative intact, but Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech pushed markets to reprice September hike odds and lifted the Dollar. The focus now shifts to U.S.
The EURJPY cross is expected to face short-term consolidation with a slight bearish tilt early this week, capped by a formidable psychological resistance barrier at 186.00. The 186.00 Resistance Wall: Multi-day attempts to close definitively above 186.00 – 186.05 have been rejected. A clean daily close above this structural barrier is required to trigger a continuation toward June highs at 186.30 and Fibonacci targets at 187.35
Gold (XAU/USD) shows marginal gains on Monday, with price action hovering around $4.450 at the time of writing yet unable to take off from last weeks lows in the $4,400 area after depreciating more than 4% late last week.
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey has warned that frontier AI could materially increase cyber risks to the global financial system.
UOB Global Economics & Markets Research, led by economist Lee Sue Ann, now expects the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to raise the Official Cash Rate to 2.75% at the September meeting.
MUFG‘s Lloyd Chan notes that markets are reassessing Federal Reserve policy after Chair Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech, with higher US rate expectations lifting the Dollar and shifting focus to whether inflation remains sticky enough to warrant tightening.
BNYs Geoff Yu expects the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to deliver another 25bp hike to 2.75%, supported by elevated inflation and strong confidence data.
Commerzbanks Tatha Ghose highlights that recent Polish fiscal and monetary developments are negative for the Polish Zloty.
EUR/CAD appreciates after two days of losses, trading around 1.6120 during the European hours on Monday.